SUCH is the secrecy in which China’s Communist Party cloaks itself
that Hu Jintao, its leader since 2002, has only twice given a live
address to the nation setting out his party’s policies in depth. His
second, delivered on November 8th, a week before he steps down, was
typically vague. Amid a growing chorus of calls for bolder economic and
political reform, both he and incoming leaders favour caution.
Intense security in Beijing and to varying degrees across the country
on the day he spoke hinted at the party’s nervousness. Despite a decade
of breakneck economic growth, discontent is widespread among the less
well-off as well as members of a much-expanded middle class, who want
more say in how they are governed. Speaking at the opening of a
five-yearly, week-long party congress, Mr Hu extolled the party’s
achievements since 2002, but repeated what has become a refrain of
China’s leaders: that its development is “unbalanced, unco-ordinated and
unsustainable”.
As a farewell gift to Mr Hu, the more than 2,200 hand-picked
congress delegates are expected to amend the party’s constitution to
enshrine his appeal for “scientific development” (eco-friendly and
balanced) alongside the other theories that supposedly guide the party:
those of Marx, Lenin, Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping and Mr Hu’s predecessor,
Jiang Zemin. There had been speculation before the congress that Mao
might be dropped from this list. But Mr Hu paid ritual tribute to the
late chairman and his thinking. Party leaders worry about an attempt by a
recently purged Politburo member, Bo Xilai, to boost his popularity by
appealing to faintly subversive nostalgia for Mao among the poor. But
they worry even more that further steps toward “de-Maoification” might
prove dangerously divisive within a party already shaken by Mr Bo’s
spectacular downfall amid allegations of corruption and a murder
cover-up.
In his 100-minute address, Mr Hu warned that corruption could cause
“the collapse of the party and the fall of the state”. Leaders, however,
have often used such language before. And the few specific remedies he
offered are also old hat, though the party has made glacial progress in
implementing them: more open government, more democracy at the
grassroots and inside the party, and greater emphasis on the rule of
law. Mr Hu stressed the importance of political reform, but also of
continued one-party rule. The man poised to succeed him as party chief
and as president next March, Xi Jinping (see next story), was in charge
of drafting Mr Hu’s speech. It probably reflected a commonly agreed
position that will be hard for Mr Xi to change, barring an economic or
political crisis that affects the balance of thinking.
In recent weeks articles warning that such a crisis might come in the
next decade, and arguing for pre-emptive reform, have appeared even in
the official press.
People’s Tribune, a fortnightly magazine produced by the party’s mouthpiece, the
People’s Daily
(and sporting Jiang Zemin’s calligraphy on its cover), published one on
the eve of the congress by Yuan Gang of Peking University. It put the
warning starkly: “A tightly controlled society in which people only do
as they are told, are utterly subservient, and in which there is no
freedom of action, will meet a rapid end.”
Mr Hu did admit a need for “greater political courage and vision”,
and said the party should “lose no time in deepening reform in key
sectors”. He repeated calls for “major changes” in the country’s growth
model away from reliance on investment and exports towards greater
emphasis on consumption. He said market forces should be given “wider
scope”, and urged “steady steps” towards making interest rates and the
exchange rate more market-driven. But he also spoke of a need to
“steadily enhance” the state sector’s ability to “leverage and influence
the economy”. Many liberal economists in China have been calling for a
loosening of state control over vital sectors, from financial services
to energy and telecommunications. Mr Hu said the private sector should
enjoy a “level playing field”, but he also said the state should boost
its investment in “key fields that comprise the lifeline of the
economy”.
There is unlikely to be fierce debate over these issues at the
congress. When it ends on November 14th delegates will dutifully raise
their hands to approve Mr Hu’s report. The tightly scripted choreography
of this five-yearly event shows no sign of changing. As usual there
will be more candidates than seats available in a new central committee
of around 370 people to be “elected” by the delegates. But behind the
scenes, party officials will work to make sure the right people are
chosen.
