President Hu Jintao gives his last state-of-the-nation address as China’s leader, admitting the growing contradictions in Chinese societ

SUCH is the secrecy in which China’s Communist Party cloaks itself that Hu Jintao, its leader since 2002, has only twice given a live address to the nation setting out his party’s policies in depth. His second, delivered on November 8th, a week before he steps down, was typically vague. Amid a growing chorus of calls for bolder economic and political reform, both he and incoming leaders favour caution.
Intense security in Beijing and to varying degrees across the country on the day he spoke hinted at the party’s nervousness. Despite a decade of breakneck economic growth, discontent is widespread among the less well-off as well as members of a much-expanded middle class, who want more say in how they are governed. Speaking at the opening of a five-yearly, week-long party congress, Mr Hu extolled the party’s achievements since 2002, but repeated what has become a refrain of China’s leaders: that its development is “unbalanced, unco-ordinated and unsustainable”.

As a farewell gift to Mr Hu, the more than 2,200 hand-picked congress delegates are expected to amend the party’s constitution to enshrine his appeal for “scientific development” (eco-friendly and balanced) alongside the other theories that supposedly guide the party: those of Marx, Lenin, Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping and Mr Hu’s predecessor, Jiang Zemin. There had been speculation before the congress that Mao might be dropped from this list. But Mr Hu paid ritual tribute to the late chairman and his thinking. Party leaders worry about an attempt by a recently purged Politburo member, Bo Xilai, to boost his popularity by appealing to faintly subversive nostalgia for Mao among the poor. But they worry even more that further steps toward “de-Maoification” might prove dangerously divisive within a party already shaken by Mr Bo’s spectacular downfall amid allegations of corruption and a murder cover-up.

In his 100-minute address, Mr Hu warned that corruption could cause “the collapse of the party and the fall of the state”. Leaders, however, have often used such language before. And the few specific remedies he offered are also old hat, though the party has made glacial progress in implementing them: more open government, more democracy at the grassroots and inside the party, and greater emphasis on the rule of law. Mr Hu stressed the importance of political reform, but also of continued one-party rule. The man poised to succeed him as party chief and as president next March, Xi Jinping (see next story), was in charge of drafting Mr Hu’s speech. It probably reflected a commonly agreed position that will be hard for Mr Xi to change, barring an economic or political crisis that affects the balance of thinking.
In recent weeks articles warning that such a crisis might come in the next decade, and arguing for pre-emptive reform, have appeared even in the official press. People’s Tribune, a fortnightly magazine produced by the party’s mouthpiece, the People’s Daily (and sporting Jiang Zemin’s calligraphy on its cover), published one on the eve of the congress by Yuan Gang of Peking University. It put the warning starkly: “A tightly controlled society in which people only do as they are told, are utterly subservient, and in which there is no freedom of action, will meet a rapid end.”
Mr Hu did admit a need for “greater political courage and vision”, and said the party should “lose no time in deepening reform in key sectors”. He repeated calls for “major changes” in the country’s growth model away from reliance on investment and exports towards greater emphasis on consumption. He said market forces should be given “wider scope”, and urged “steady steps” towards making interest rates and the exchange rate more market-driven. But he also spoke of a need to “steadily enhance” the state sector’s ability to “leverage and influence the economy”. Many liberal economists in China have been calling for a loosening of state control over vital sectors, from financial services to energy and telecommunications. Mr Hu said the private sector should enjoy a “level playing field”, but he also said the state should boost its investment in “key fields that comprise the lifeline of the economy”.
There is unlikely to be fierce debate over these issues at the congress. When it ends on November 14th delegates will dutifully raise their hands to approve Mr Hu’s report. The tightly scripted choreography of this five-yearly event shows no sign of changing. As usual there will be more candidates than seats available in a new central committee of around 370 people to be “elected” by the delegates. But behind the scenes, party officials will work to make sure the right people are chosen.